bake - December 2020 - 93

Economy: The economy remains
challenging, and there is greater inflationary
pressure from food at home. If the economy
worsens, many shoppers will likely cook more
at home and seek more savings strategies.
Grocery: The grocery department has
dominated year-to-date bread and baked
good sales, accounting for $40.8 billion of
the total $55.8 billion in this segment across
the store -as the fresh bakery department
continues to suffer.
Categories: The pandemic has reminded
consumers of the benefits of the commercial
bread aisle, but refrigerated and frozen bread
and baked goods are growing faster.
Restaurants: The restaurant business is
likely to encounter challenges for at least
another six months, with mixed impacts on

38

PANADERIA

| DECEMBER 20

the quick-serve sector and severe implications
for upscale segments.
Demand: Food retailers and manufacturers
are already preparing for the possibility of
another COVID surge, including stockpiling
groceries to be ready for rising demand.
Nielsen research found 29% of consumers
are worse off financially compared to last year,
and only 37% are secure in their jobs.
" This explains why so many observers are
now talking about a K-shaped economic
recovery, " Hale said, which suggests different
impacts by consumer groups - in particular,
a haves and have-nots scenario. " The haves will
be okay, so premium products will probably
be good, " Hale said. " For those struggling to
spend, the value retail players have a chance
to fill demand. "

Consumers are unlikely to completely
abandon their new home-based behaviors
when the COVID-19 crisis is over, Hale
predicted, referring to at-home baking and
cooking.
" I don't think people will become weary
of cooking and entertaining at home, "
he said. " It will continue to be a growth
engine. I would suggest more advertising
that helps continue to fill demand around
the enjoyment of eating at home and family
togetherness. "
Hale urged bakers to make investments
that position their businesses for the future,
despite near-term challenges. " Don't sit on
the sidelines and think you can win, " he
said. " Companies that invest during a
recession come out ahead. "



bake - December 2020

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